It is tempest time once again for the UPA. The survival of the Manmohan Singh Government depends on three factors: the judiciary which will take its decision on the Coalgate scam on April 30; the BJP-led Opposition which is determined to corner the government on the JPC on 2G and outside parties such as the Samajwadi Party that is keeping the Congress on its toes. An ominous note from an NCP spokesperson on Saturday evening summed up the mood: “The government is in a minority. Elections can happen any time.”
Despite Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s strong backing of his Law Minister Ashwani Kumar on Saturday, the very terms in which he chose to do so -- “the matter is sub judice”-- makes him vulnerable.
If the Supreme Court decides to pass strictures on Kumar for vetting the CBI status report on coal allocations at the next hearing, not only will that cast a doubt on his continuance, but the PM too will come under the wider ambit of collective responsibility.
Still worse, if the SC’s comments touch upon the topmost layer of the executive – a PMO official was also shown the status report – it would challenge what is left of the government’s tattered credibility. Then, despite its bravado, the government’s survival too can come under a cloud, a Congress parliamentary aide admitted.
Curiously, the government’s fate is majorly dependent on how far NDA chairperson L K Advani will go on the Finance Bill that has to be passed at the end of this Parliament session.
The main threat the government faces is from the BJP, that has firmly resolved to not allow Parliament to function until all references to former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee is deleted from the JPC report. The BJP also feels that former telecom minister A Raja be allowed to depose before the JPC. In addition, Advani has made it clear to the Congress that the demand for the Law Minister’s removal is non-negotiable.
Meanwhile, SP chief Mulayam Sigh Yadav also wants the government to go, but by itself and not by anyone bringing it down. He has taken a much more strident stand by declining to meet UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi to resolve the crisis.
He has also made it clear that Raja be allowed to have his say before the Chacko report is adopted.
Mulayam has been engineering a coalition of disparate opposition parties – the Trinamool, Left, BJD, BJP – to stand against the government on the 2G/JPC front. However, both the BJP and the SP would not like to precipitate a Constitutional crisis for the government by obstructing the passage of the Finance Bill which may get passed amidst the cacophony of protest.
The prospect of the BJP actually holding up the Finance Bill, scheduled to come up in the Lok Sabha on May 6, is remote.
Meanwhile, the next meeting of the fractious JPC is set for May 3. This, though, is subject to the Lok Sabha Speaker Meera Kumar’s clearance, because 15 JPC members have submitted letters declaring their no-confidence in Chacko.
The BJP is using the Bill as the screw to force the UPA to rewrite the JPC report removing any indictment of the Vajpayee Government or NDA ministers such as Jaswant Singh, Arun Shourie and the late Pramod Mahajan in telecom pricing and allocation. Chacko and two other senior Congress leaders are in hectic negotiations behind the scenes with top BJP leaders, including Advani and Yashwant Sinha. They are also in talks with the Left leaders on the panel.
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