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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

TIME FOR A REVIVAL IN KARNATAKA FOR CONGRESS

By M H Ahssan / Bangalore

“The BJP will lose here. We can hear it in Delhi,” said Rahul Gandhi at his election meeting in  Sindhanoor in Raichur district of Karnataka. If he travelled enough through Karnataka, he would also  get to hear the rumblings within his Congress camp that threaten to turn a winning march into a less  than a simple majority status.

On the face of it, the Congress is poised to make the most of the disappointment with the way BJP  governed Karnataka in the last five years. Most opinion polls have predicted a Congress victory in the  state that in 2008 was celebrated as BJP’s gateway to the south.


But speak to Congress leaders privately and the concern that the match could go down to the wire,  comes tumbling out. And there are several aspects of this election that the party seems to be  blundering on.

The absence of a CM candidate : In the past, whoever was deemed to have had the best chance of  getting the top job – be it S M Krishna in 1999 or B S Yeddyurappa in 2008 for the BJP – would walk  that extra mile, politically and financially, to ensure the party gets a majority. This time, different  groups are only looking to ensure their candidates win and no one is looking at the pan-Karnataka  picture for the Congress. The fact that the Congress shied away from projecting a CM candidate is a  pointer to how divided the party is. The frontrunners for the post are Leader of the Opposition and  former deputy chief minister Siddaramaiah and PCC chief G Parameshwar. However, the emergence of  a dark horse – like Vijay Bahuguna in Uttarakhand – if the Congress gets to form the government can  never be ruled out.

The party’s penchant to play communal politics in Dakshina Kannada, that has been a BJP stronghold  for many years : Just like in 2008, the Congress has fielded all minority candidates from all the three  seats in Mangalore city, an indication of its resolve to polarise the vote on communal lines. While its  attempt is to corner the entire minority vote – Mangalore city has a 22 per cent Muslim and 16 per  cent Christian population – the flip side is that in this highly communal region, it could also lose many  a Hindu vote to the BJP. And the BJP MLAs in Mangalore are seen to have been pro-development, a  factor that also will work in their favour.

Strong anti-incumbency: There is a strong sentiment of anti-incumbency against at least one-fourth  of the sitting 80 Congress MLAs. In such cases, simply raising an anti-BJP pitch is unlikely to work as  voters are looking closely at the report card of the Congress legislators too.

Missing pro-Congress wave: The personal credibility of some of the BJP MLAs is high even though the  party’s image has taken a beating. And the absence of a pro-Congress wave could hurt the party’s  chances.

The mining factor: In Bellary, it has become a case of pot calling the kettle black. The Congress kept  attacking the Reddy brothers for looting Bellary’s mineral wealth and using the ill-gotten money to  control the BJP government. But this election has not seen them practise what they preached. They  too have handed out tickets to tainted cash-rich mine owners, who have been pulled up by the  Supreme Court for violating the mining guidelines with impunity. That is an indication that  irrespective of who comes to power, the political control in Bellary will continue to be in the hands of  the rich and the powerful. And yes, the law-breakers too.

Banking on Yeddyurappa: The Congress is banking heavily on Yeddyurappa to split the original BJP  vote in most constituencies. The former chief minister will undoubtedly do that and could prove  beneficial to the Congress in close contests. But it will be seen as a victory by default.

Family ties: In the run-up to the distribution of tickets, senior Congress leaders spent more time  advertising their kith and kin for selection as candidates. Almost all the Congress heavyweights – from  Mallikarjun Kharge to Dharam Singh to Jaffer Sharief – were guilty of not seeing beyond their DNA  when it came to supporting candidates.

Rebel candidates: The presence of rebel candidates in elections is nothing new to the Congress but  the party would do well to win them over, instead of waiting for a situation where they harm the  official party candidate’s chances.

The minority factor: It is not quite certain which way the 12 percent Muslims in Karnataka will vote.  In 2008, they voted en masse for the Congress because they were unhappy with the Janata Dal  (Secular) for having formed a coalition government in 2006. But this time, the JD(S) is likely to eat  into the Muslim vote even though there are doubts if HD Kumaraswamy may once again flirt with the  BJP, should there be a fractured mandate in Karnataka.

The Karnataka elections are not merely about the 224 MLAs who will enter the Vidhan Soudha. It will  have huge implications for the Congress’ morale across India, as a victory over the BJP will help lift its  sagging spirits. The results on 8 May will in effect, kickstart the run-up to the general election to be  held exactly a year from now.

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