Never has a government appeared more vulnerable. From business to politics to sport, entire society is tainted with corruption. There is no accountability. There is no institution working with requisite competence. The public is yearning for change. The situation is a godsend to the opposition.
But the main opposition party seems paralyzed and incapable of cashing in on its opportunity. One does not know why this paralysis. One does not know the truth. But one is aware of the popular perception fed to the public by informed journalists. And in politics it is perception that counts.
What is the popular perception about the BJP?
The perception is that the BJP is immersed in the problem of deciding who should be the next prime Minister even as no assessment offers the party a prospect of obtaining single party parliamentary majority. Every BJP leader seems busy pursuing an agenda to decide the next PM. Every leader seems busy pursuing a personal plot for success.
Narendra Modi seems to be on an overdrive to get anointed next PM. He is touring state capitals, conferring with leaders and addressing groups of citizens. If the BJP is to get a respectable tally in the polls it must perform well in India ’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh. BJP President Rajnath Singh is from that state. He forged a formidable caste alliance for his party by enticing OBC leader Kalyan Singh back to the BJP. The BJP’s best performance of obtaining over 50 Lok Sabha seats in UP was accomplished when there was a Thakur-Kurmi alliance led by Rajnath Singh and Kalyan Singh earlier. But it seems Modi has successfully plotted to prevent credit for a repeat success to go to any UP leader.
His confidant from Gujarat Amit Shah has been foisted as general secretary in charge of UP. If that happens it will ensure that all credit for success in UP will go to Modi and nobody else. Whether such generosity occurs from Rajnath Singh’s faith in Modi’s leadership, in extreme naiveté or through some hidden pressure is open to speculation. At the same time the BJP is contemplating appointment of Modi as the head of the election campaign committee. These are huge steps forward for Modi to realize his ambition. But it seems there is no unanimity within his own party to make him PM. It seems that LK Advani is pursuing his own plot for success.
It seems that Advani is rooting for Nitin Gadkari to be appointed head of the panel to oversee the forthcoming state assembly elections, in which the BJP is expected to fare well, to pre-empt Modi. If BJP wins in several state assembly elections will not Gadkari be perceived as the natural choice to head the election campaign committee for 2014? It will be of course the same Gadkari who was ousted from continuing as the party president by the strenuous exertions of Advani and his loyalists. According to popular perception Mrs. Sushma Swaraj, Yashwant Sinha and Anantha Kumar are Advani’s loyalists. Arun Jaitley and Venkaiyah Naidu are perceived as Modi’s supporters.
Jaitley’s perceived support for Modi makes sound political sense. It is an open secret that leaders of regional parties who are potential allies of the BJP have privately indicated to RSS interlocutors support for Jaitley as the BJP candidate for Prime Minister. Therefore in case the BJP does not get single party majority Modi will surely extend support to Jaitley over either Advani or Mrs. Sushma Swaraj as the compromise choice from the rival camp. Since chances of obtaining a single party majority for the BJP are remote the prospects for Jaitley appear bright. But there is of course a catch.
Jaitley is not without his opponents within the party. Recently BJP MP Kirti Azad lashed out at Jaitley for his failure to stop corruption in the IPL Cricket League. Apart from being President of the Delhi & District Cricket Association (DDCA) Jaitley also heads the disciplinary body of the BCCI. Azad is an old critic of Jaitley and the DDCA. But the timing of his present outburst is intriguing. Azad told TV channels that responsibility for corruption in the IPL was shared equally by the NDA and UPA and both were partners in covering up the sleaze. He criticized Jaitley for not acting against cricketer Harbhajan Singh after the latter slapped fellow cricketer Sreesanth in public. He demanded that the National Investigative Agency (NIA) probe the conduct of BCCI and IPL officials.
The DDCA hit back at Azad. It demanded a lifetime ban on Kirti Azad for attempting to tarnish the image of DDCA and its president Arun Jaitley and accused him of indulging in dirty politics in the “garb of criticizing” the IPL. “We demand Kirti Azad's immediate suspension along with other such cricketers from BCCI and DDCA, and institution of an immediate independent inquiry to their accusations so that if found guilty, lifetime ban on them could be imposed,” Vinod Tihara, Convenor Sports Committee if DDCA said: Strangely enough, while discipline is being invoked in cricketing circles there is not a murmur from within the BJP about Azad’s allegations against Jaitley in public that mock party discipline. Not surprisingly there is wide perception that powerful elements within the BJP opposed to Jaitley are tacitly encouraging Azad.
This, then, is how the BJP is being perceived by the public. As things appear there is little prospect of a BJP Prime Minister emerging after 2014 polls. All this is based of course on perceptions propagated by the media and it may have little relevance to reality. Most BJP leaders are perceived to be busily plotting away to further individual agendas. But despite so much plotting under way the BJP itself, sad to say, seems to have lost the plot.
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